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China’s shadow lending system might be trying its hand at sub-prime banking. And when China’s real estate market goes, it will likely be what exactly George Soros is warning about since January as he announced he was shorting the neighborhood currency, the renmimbi.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission said on the weekend that Shanghai banks cannot cooperating with six mortgage brokers for about 30 days for violating lending policies. Branches of seven commercial banks admitted on Monday that they can suspend mortgage lending for clients brokered by those six firms for a couple of months in order to clamp down on 房貸, the Shanghai office of your Commission said.

It’s unclear exactly what China means by the “gray market”, but it really does appear like mortgage brokers as well as their partner banks work with time to get investors and first-timers into a home as China’s economy slows.

Should this be happening in Shanghai, imagine the interior provinces where there exists a housing glut plus they tend to be influenced by real estate business for revenue.

The central and western provinces happen to be hit hard from the slowdown in the whole economy and consequently, existing property supply may be a hard sell, Macquarie Capital analysts led by Ian Roper wrote in a report paid by Bloomberg on Monday. Another wave of the latest housing construction won’t assistance to resolve the oversupply issue during these regions, and mortgage lenders could be using some “ancient Chinese secrets” to either unload them to buyers or fund them a tad bit more creatively.

For some observers, this looks a lttle bit an excessive amount of like what the seeds of your housing and financial crisis all rolled into one.

The creative goods that wiped out U.S. housing in 2008 — referred to as mortgaged backed securities and collateralized debt obligations tied to sub-prime mortgages — was a massive, trillion dollar market. That’s untrue in China. But that mortgage backed securities marketplace is growing. As it is China’s debt market. China’s debt doesn’t pay a hell of your lot, so some investors searching for a bigger bang may go downstream and locate themselves in uncharted Chinese waters with derivative products full of unsavory real-estate obligations.

The Chinese securitization market took off a year ago and is now approaching $100 billion. It is Asia’s biggest, outpacing Japan by three to 1.

Leading the drive are big state-owned banks much like the ones in Shanghai who have temporarily de-activate access to their loans from questionable mortgage firms. Others from the derivatives business include mid-sized financial firms seeking to package loans into collateralized loan obligations (CLO), which can be better than CDOs insofar because they are not pools of independent mortgages. However, CLOs could include loans to housing developers influenced by those independent mortgages.

China’s housing bubble is unique as compared to the U.S. because — to date — we have seen no foreclosure crisis as well as the derivatives market that feeds off home mortgages is small. Moreover, China home buyers must make large down payments. What triggered the sub-prime housing industry within the Usa was the practice by mortgage brokers to approve applications of those that had no money to put upon the property. China avoids that, on paper, because of its downpayment requirement.

Precisely what is not clear is exactly what real estate developers are adhering to that policy, and that is not. As well as in the instance where that kind of debt gets packed into a derivative product, then China’s credit is a concern.

The marketplace for asset backed securities in China continues to grow thanks completely to another issuance system. Further healthy expansion of financial derivatives may help pull a large sum out from the country’s notoriously opaque shadow banking sector and set it back on banks’ books, giving China more transparency.

But Shanghai’s crackdown this weekend implies that authorities are keeping a detailed eye on home mortgage brokers even if your “gray market” is not really necessarily associated with derivatives.

Kingsley Ong, somebody at lawyer Eversheds International who helped draft China’s asset-backed security laws in 2007, called the chance of securitization in China “nearly unlimited”.

The lack of industry experience and widespread failure to disclose 房屋貸款 have raised questions about its ultimate affect on the broader economy.

All of this “eerily resembles what went down throughout the economic crisis inside the United states in 2007-08, which was similarly fueled by credit growth,” Soros said during a meeting on the Asia dexlpky85 in New York City on April 20. “Most of the money that banks are supplying is required to keep bad debts and loss-making enterprises alive,” he was quoted saying.

That is true of housing developers looking for buyers and — perhaps — the mortgage brokers and banks willing to assist them to help keep businesses afloat.

Rutledge told the China Economic Review in November there was really a real risk.

China’s securitization market took shape in April of 2005 but was suspended during 2009 due to Usa housing crisis along with its link to the derivatives market China is presently building. Regulators lifted the ban on mortgage backed securities in May 2012, though they outlawed re-securitization products and synthetic CDOs, that are CDOs of CDOs, the uicide squeeze that helped kill many American banks including Lehman and Bear Stearns.